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Whether for fun or money, getting involved in a fantasy basketball league is more fun when you’re playing to win. Here are some tips that are sure to help your team rise to the top.
Forwards
1) If your league works on total points, rebounds, assists and defense (steals and blocks), you must look hard at how many minutes each player will play. Your best value is star players from ordinary teams. Since mediocre clubs are involved in more close games (not good enough to blow other teams out, not bad enough to get stomped quickly), the minutes are more prevalent. Another plus: mediocre teams generally have weak bench players, which means even more minutes for your star.
2) Every forward in the NBA must score or rebound, and probably will do both. The most important skill in any forward is scoring. The reason why is that if a player scores, their minutes are less dependent on the whims of their coach. Besides, if a player’s defense is really awful, they rarely get into the starting line-up in the first place.
3) Determine an average performance level for each position. Many owners fall into the trap of not putting numbers in context. A forward might get 5 rebounds a game, which sounds fine...until you determine that, given how many forwards are in your league, 5 rebounds a game is 2 rebounds a game less than an average forward. (Those averages are hypothetical.) The point is to measure not just totals, but how those totals relate to other players.
4) Beware youth. Teenagers rarely have immediate and intense NBA impact, and no player can help you from the bench. In many leagues, team owners try to feed their egos by predicting the future. If you draft young players, be ready to suffer growing pains.
5) Forwards must rebound. With few exceptions, forwards that fail to grab rebounds are just not on winning fantasy league teams. If you must have a pure one-dimensional scorer, make that player a guard, unless you’ve got some real rebound monsters on the roster to compensate.
Guards
1) If your league counts assists, you absolutely need to get several top performing point guards on your roster. Unlike rebounds or points, where a normal bell curve distribution pattern can be seen in production, assists are really a specialty skill.
2) For your purposes, the best point guards are also scorers. While a “pure” point guard might be aesthetically pleasing, they also get fewer minutes. The reason why is that they don’t provide the extra long-range scoring option that’s needed in today’s NBA game.
3) Once again, determine what the player’s real team will be like before making your selection. Mediocrity is prized here, especially if the back-up players are more or less pure defensive substitutions.
Centers
1) If you count blocked shots in your league, this is the position to load up. Just like guards with assists, centers dominate the blocked shot categories.
2) The center position has, throughout NBA history, been the biggest star system position. Your goal as a team owner is to either get a star or devalue the position, since the statistical drop-off is usually very severe.
3) Star centers start young. Few truly great centers evolve into the position, because the physical demands are just too extreme. No, the top players at this position are generally at a high level on Day One. However, very few players become that good if they aren’t very high draft picks – as in the top 3 selections. So if you’ve got your eye on a rookie center, make sure the pedigree is pristine.
3) Playing time disparity is greatest at center. Teams that don’t have a star try to rotate fresh bodies into the position, in an attempt to overwhelm the opposition by attrition. If you are a fantasy league player, this is another reason to either come strong in this category, or not to come at all.
Overall
1) The biggest single key to winning, either in real or fantasy leagues, is staying healthy. (Why? Because the replacement players don’t help you that much.) You need to know the injury histories of your players and predict the future possibility of injury. This is also where keeping an eye on the personal issues and history of your players (suspensions, weight gains, contract squabbles, etc.) pays off.
2) Don’t underemphasize playoff performance. Since the NBA operates under a star system, players that rise to the top when the pressure is on generally do better the next year. (Why? Coaches play them more, and referees give them more leeway.)
Similarly, players with good regular season performances who tail off in the playoffs will eventually see their minutes decline, if not an outright trade to another organization. While the best predictor for this year’s regular season performance is last year’s regular season performance, the playoffs can and will enter into the equation.
3) Pick your gambles carefully. Players that are coming off suspensions, injuries, or other personal quandaries are frequently undervalued in fantasy leagues. The reason why is simple: depending on them is not attractive in the least.
This is frequently where leagues are won and lost. If you can get a star player for less than his real value, your team is sure to benefit. Get burned, and you won’t win. So scout these players extensively, and weight their problems differently. (For example, ankles aren’t as serious as knees, and excess weight isn’t as serious as a drug dependency, and a contract holdout is usually only a minor annoyance. Et cetera.) Remember, the more you roll the dice, the more likely you are to wind up with an unproductive position...and you can’t win with a hole on your roster.
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